Per-SKU total ASIN demand (debiased monthlySold interval from the pinned calibration snapshot) vs our captured units (Haul own sales, payload-anchored 30d window), with the gap priced as a dollar range per the D4 price rule.
47.9%of the full range's P90 ($1.92M–$5.58M, 49 SKUs) sits on listings where Amazon 1P currently holds the buy box (≥50% of buy-box time). Capturing it requires winning the buy box from Amazon — a buy-box strategy, not just stock.
cal-2026-07-03-7b54d50b · own-sales anchor 2026-07-03 · computed 2026-07-03 10:54 UTC · price rule: own trailing-90d ASP → Keepa buy-box (pinned payload) → unpriced (D4) · headline universe: census census-dfea4b8a-f2a8-41ac-b3d1-0ea1dc6b3008 (2251 ASINs)| ASIN / Brand | State | Grade | Total demand (units/30d) | Captured (units/30d) | Gap (units/30d) | Gap ($/30d) | Price basis | Reconciliation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
B07R36NQ1Z illy · tier A |
| ESTIMATED 1P HOLDS BUY BOX Amazon 1P held 55% of buy-box time — winning this gap needs buy-box strategy, not just stock |
| C |
| 9,584–20,338 |
| 11,762 |
| 0–8,576 |
| $0–$282.7K |
| own ASP 90d ($32.96) |
| DIVERGENT |
B0DWP4941S SureFire | ESTIMATED | C | 57–253 | 1 | 56–252 | $16.6K–$75.4K | own ASP 90d ($299.00) | DIVERGENT |
B019468YYO SureFire | ESTIMATED | C | 380–691 | 8 | 372–683 | $27.9K–$51.2K | own ASP 90d ($74.98) | DIVERGENT |
B091D5PZFD illy · tier A | ESTIMATED | C | 778–1,282 | 940 | 0–342 | $0–$35.1K | own ASP 90d ($102.47) | DIVERGENT |
B0749TYKPN illy · tier C | ESTIMATED 1P HOLDS BUY BOX Amazon 1P held 72% of buy-box time — winning this gap needs buy-box strategy, not just stock | C | 53–216 | 40 | 13–176 | $2,332–$32.3K | own ASP 90d ($183.61) | DIVERGENT |
B07QYVQSMT illy · tier C | ESTIMATED | C | 540–809 | 544 | 0–265 | $0–$31.1K | own ASP 90d ($117.52) | DIVERGENT |
B07QXS4F8L illy · tier A | ESTIMATED | C | 129–424 | 192 | 0–232 | $0–$28.2K | own ASP 90d ($121.48) | DIVERGENT |
B07K36P185 illy · tier A | ESTIMATED | C | 274–583 | 262 | 12–321 | $903–$25.2K | own ASP 90d ($78.53) | DIVERGENT |
B009F7J8RA SureFire | ESTIMATED | C | 116–439 | 102 | 14–337 | $964–$22.5K | own ASP 90d ($66.97) | DIVERGENT |
B09JL5FN2Y Wiley Wallaby · tier A | ESTIMATED | C | 274–583 | 38 | 236–545 | $3,083–$7,137 | own ASP 90d ($13.09) | DIVERGENT |
B07XPD9B3C Heartbeat Hot Sauce Co. · tier B | ESTIMATED | C | 274–583 | 112 | 162–471 | $2,424–$7,073 | own ASP 90d ($15.01) | DIVERGENT |
B0000VN1AA SureFire | ESTIMATED | C | 57–253 | 20 | 37–233 | $1,098–$6,991 | own ASP 90d ($30.00) | DIVERGENT |
B0CHWWXCZJ Wiley Wallaby · tier C | ESTIMATED | C | 540–809 | 327 | 213–482 | $1,948–$4,400 | own ASP 90d ($9.13) | DIVERGENT |
B09PXDR294 Earth Animal · tier A | ESTIMATED | C | 540–809 | 730 | 0–79 | $0–$2,403 | own ASP 90d ($30.46) | DIVERGENT |
B00ETPQ5BA Wiley Wallaby · tier B | ESTIMATED | C | 540–809 | 582 | 0–227 | $0–$1,774 | own ASP 90d ($7.82) | DIVERGENT |
15 SKUs.