Per-SKU total ASIN demand (debiased monthlySold interval from the pinned calibration snapshot) vs our captured units (Haul own sales, payload-anchored 30d window), with the gap priced as a dollar range per the D4 price rule.
47.9%of the full range's P90 ($1.92M–$5.58M, 49 SKUs) sits on listings where Amazon 1P currently holds the buy box (≥50% of buy-box time). Capturing it requires winning the buy box from Amazon — a buy-box strategy, not just stock.
cal-2026-07-03-7b54d50b · own-sales anchor 2026-07-03 · computed 2026-07-03 10:54 UTC · price rule: own trailing-90d ASP → Keepa buy-box (pinned payload) → unpriced (D4) · headline universe: census census-dfea4b8a-f2a8-41ac-b3d1-0ea1dc6b3008 (2251 ASINs)| ASIN / Brand | State | Grade | Total demand (units/30d) | Captured (units/30d) | Gap (units/30d) | Gap ($/30d) | Price basis | Reconciliation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
B01CIDEUPM illy · tier U |
| ESTIMATED 1P HOLDS BUY BOX Amazon 1P held 100% of buy-box time — winning this gap needs buy-box strategy, not just stock |
| B |
| 1,360–4,515 |
| 0 |
| 1,360–4,515 |
| $17.4K–$57.7K |
| Keepa buy box ($12.79) |
| INSUFFICIENT |
B00B5KIBVO SureFire | ESTIMATED | B | 57–253 | 0 | 57–253 | $12.8K–$57.2K | Keepa buy box ($226.12) | INSUFFICIENT |
B004RDLE2Y illy · tier U | ESTIMATED | B | 129–424 | 0 | 129–424 | $14.9K–$48.7K | Keepa buy box ($114.99) | INSUFFICIENT |
B01A8OKZ5C SureFire | ESTIMATED | B | 57–253 | 0 | 57–253 | $10.1K–$45.3K | Keepa buy box ($179.20) | INSUFFICIENT |
B07QRXJDJ2 illy · tier U | ESTIMATED 1P HOLDS BUY BOX Amazon 1P held 59% of buy-box time — winning this gap needs buy-box strategy, not just stock | B | 1,360–4,515 | 0 | 1,360–4,515 | $13.6K–$45.1K | Keepa buy box ($9.99) | INSUFFICIENT |
B07QRZ5T9N illy · tier U | ESTIMATED | B | 1,360–4,515 | 0 | 1,360–4,515 | $13.3K–$44.2K | Keepa buy box ($9.79) | INSUFFICIENT |
B07FXQVZTW SureFire | ESTIMATED | B | 116–439 | 0 | 116–439 | $10.5K–$39.5K | Keepa buy box ($89.98) | INSUFFICIENT |
B01IO8YVX6 Earth Animal · tier A | ESTIMATED | B | 2,396–6,778 | 3,485 | 0–3,293 | $0–$39.2K | own ASP 90d ($11.89) | AGREE |
B08QG21HWB illy · tier U | ESTIMATED 1P HOLDS BUY BOX Amazon 1P held 100% of buy-box time — winning this gap needs buy-box strategy, not just stock | B | 1,078–2,258 | 0 | 1,078–2,258 | $18.6K–$39.0K | Keepa buy box ($17.29) | INSUFFICIENT |
B09Z5XLXP7 illy · tier U | ESTIMATED 1P HOLDS BUY BOX Amazon 1P held 100% of buy-box time — winning this gap needs buy-box strategy, not just stock | B | 1,078–2,258 | 0 | 1,078–2,258 | $18.6K–$38.9K | Keepa buy box ($17.25) | INSUFFICIENT |
B07D3RFDN3 illy · tier C | ESTIMATED | B | 53–216 | 1 | 52–215 | $9,176–$38.1K | own ASP 90d ($177.49) | DIVERGENT |
B00112CS8S illy · tier A | ESTIMATED | B | 540–809 | 404 | 136–405 | $12.3K–$36.6K | own ASP 90d ($90.52) | AGREE |
B09R6YM1ZL Wiley Wallaby · tier A | ESTIMATED | A | 1,360–4,515 | 2,020 | 0–2,495 | $0–$36.2K | own ASP 90d ($14.49) | AGREE |
B0090GG1I0 illy · tier U | ESTIMATED 1P HOLDS BUY BOX Amazon 1P held 100% of buy-box time — winning this gap needs buy-box strategy, not just stock | B | 958–2,032 | 0 | 958–2,032 | $16.5K–$35.0K | Keepa buy box ($17.25) | INSUFFICIENT |
B08K2V1NPY illy · tier A | ESTIMATED | B | 274–583 | 234 | 40–349 | $3,901–$34.5K | own ASP 90d ($98.77) | AGREE |
B01ETQZVUO SureFire | ESTIMATED | B | 57–253 | 0 | 57–253 | $7,250–$32.4K | Keepa buy box ($128.09) | INSUFFICIENT |
B0815HCXTQ illy · tier A | ESTIMATED | B | 274–583 | 230 | 44–353 | $3,965–$32.2K | own ASP 90d ($91.14) | AGREE |
B00LX1PT74 SureFire | ESTIMATED | B | 116–439 | 0 | 116–439 | $8,264–$31.1K | Keepa buy box ($71.00) | INSUFFICIENT |
B08L6ZXSC5 illy · tier A | ESTIMATED | A | 129–424 | 132 | 0–292 | $0–$30.3K | own ASP 90d ($103.79) | AGREE |
B08L8CBFQR illy · tier C | ESTIMATED | B | 129–424 | 141 | 0–283 | $0–$29.6K | own ASP 90d ($104.61) | DIVERGENT |
B08PJH3HPQ illy · tier C | ESTIMATED | A | 129–424 | 142 | 0–282 | $0–$29.3K | own ASP 90d ($103.78) | AGREE |
B0CNF7CV18 Wiley Wallaby · tier A | ESTIMATED | A | 1,360–4,515 | 1,609 | 0–2,906 | $0–$29.2K | own ASP 90d ($10.04) | AGREE |
B01M0XTSHK Earth Animal · tier A | ESTIMATED | B | 719–1,580 | 1,045 | 0–535 | $0–$28.9K | own ASP 90d ($54.11) | AGREE |
B0816YX221 illy · tier A | ESTIMATED | B | 274–583 | 290 | 0–293 | $0–$26.4K | own ASP 90d ($90.18) | AGREE |
B07KRXFJXV illy · tier A | ESTIMATED | A | 129–424 | 150 | 0–274 | $0–$26.0K | own ASP 90d ($94.94) | AGREE |
B0FPRZQ35V illy · tier C | ESTIMATED | A | 129–424 | 185 | 0–239 | $0–$25.6K | own ASP 90d ($107.13) | AGREE |
B0BYTQCNFD Wiley Wallaby · tier A | ESTIMATED | A | 1,360–4,515 | 1,498 | 0–3,017 | $0–$25.5K | own ASP 90d ($8.46) | AGREE |
B0C6NBWF97 illy · tier A | ESTIMATED | A | 129–424 | 136 | 0–288 | $0–$24.9K | own ASP 90d ($86.36) | AGREE |
B0FN5W9MD7 Earth Animal · tier B | ESTIMATED | A | 121–462 | 127 | 0–335 | $0–$23.7K | own ASP 90d ($70.69) | AGREE |
B01N6EC9PS illy · tier U | ESTIMATED 1P HOLDS BUY BOX Amazon 1P held 100% of buy-box time — winning this gap needs buy-box strategy, not just stock | B | 958–2,032 | 0 | 958–2,032 | $11.0K–$23.3K | Keepa buy box ($11.46) | INSUFFICIENT |
B0C1QHBC2H Earth Animal · tier A | ESTIMATED | B | 79–263 | 65 | 14–198 | $1,631–$23.1K | own ASP 90d ($116.48) | DIVERGENT |
B01EB89KK2 Earth Animal · tier A | ESTIMATED | A | 1,372–4,926 | 2,989 | 0–1,937 | $0–$23.1K | own ASP 90d ($11.91) | AGREE |
B0C4BC44FS illy | ESTIMATED 1P HOLDS BUY BOX Amazon 1P held 100% of buy-box time — winning this gap needs buy-box strategy, not just stock | B | 778–1,282 | 0 | 778–1,282 | $13.9K–$22.9K | Keepa buy box ($17.84) | INSUFFICIENT |
B0FN4WL7S1 Earth Animal · tier B | ESTIMATED | A | 121–462 | 142 | 0–320 | $0–$22.7K | own ASP 90d ($70.88) | AGREE |
B08B4J12V2 illy · tier A | ESTIMATED | A | 129–424 | 177 | 0–247 | $0–$22.4K | own ASP 90d ($90.68) | AGREE |
B08MZCGPH1 SureFire | ESTIMATED | B | 116–439 | 9 | 107–430 | $5,370–$21.5K | own ASP 90d ($50.00) | AGREE |
B004DH65RI SureFire | ESTIMATED | B | 540–809 | 0 | 540–809 | $14.0K–$20.9K | Keepa buy box ($25.90) | INSUFFICIENT |
B0FRTK5D8C illy · tier B | ESTIMATED | B | 53–216 | 37 | 16–179 | $1,802–$20.5K | own ASP 90d ($114.79) | DIVERGENT |
B07K42TVH2 illy · tier C | ESTIMATED | A | 129–424 | 154 | 0–270 | $0–$20.5K | own ASP 90d ($75.87) | AGREE |
B0CL5CGDRS Wiley Wallaby · tier B | ESTIMATED | A | 129–424 | 76 | 53–348 | $3,125–$20.4K | own ASP 90d ($58.74) | AGREE |
B0FN5K794L Earth Animal · tier A | ESTIMATED | A | 121–462 | 179 | 0–283 | $0–$20.2K | own ASP 90d ($71.13) | AGREE |
B07S1P933G Earth Animal · tier A | ESTIMATED | B | 958–2,032 | 1,313 | 0–719 | $0–$19.8K | own ASP 90d ($27.58) | AGREE |
B0FN4VZ4YH Earth Animal · tier A | ESTIMATED | A | 121–462 | 193 | 0–269 | $0–$19.1K | own ASP 90d ($70.90) | AGREE |
B0DB2RJFY5 illy · tier U | ESTIMATED 1P HOLDS BUY BOX Amazon 1P held 100% of buy-box time — winning this gap needs buy-box strategy, not just stock | B | 380–691 | 0 | 380–691 | $10.3K–$18.6K | Keepa buy box ($26.98) | INSUFFICIENT |
B089F7XZ28 illy · tier A | ESTIMATED | B | 719–1,580 | 1,244 | 0–336 | $0–$17.5K | own ASP 90d ($52.05) | AGREE |
B0DJTKB3ZR Heartbeat Hot Sauce Co. · tier C | ESTIMATED | A | 129–424 | 108 | 21–316 | $1,168–$17.4K | own ASP 90d ($55.08) | AGREE |
B0F4F6ZLS5 illy · tier A | ESTIMATED | A | 129–424 | 129 | 0–295 | $11–$16.6K | own ASP 90d ($56.43) | AGREE |
B09JL6KP39 Wiley Wallaby · tier A | ESTIMATED | A | 1,360–4,515 | 2,411 | 0–2,104 | $0–$16.5K | own ASP 90d ($7.85) | AGREE |
B07JX9QCSY illy · tier U | ESTIMATED 1P HOLDS BUY BOX Amazon 1P held 100% of buy-box time — winning this gap needs buy-box strategy, not just stock | B | 778–1,282 | 0 | 778–1,282 | $9,793–$16.1K | Keepa buy box ($12.59) | INSUFFICIENT |
B083WQ3NM6 illy | ESTIMATED 1P HOLDS BUY BOX Amazon 1P held 100% of buy-box time — winning this gap needs buy-box strategy, not just stock | B | 540–809 | 0 | 540–809 | $10.8K–$16.1K | Keepa buy box ($19.94) | INSUFFICIENT |