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Learned Lead Times

PO-placed → dock distributions per vendor from Flow PO history (read-only). Distributions, not averages — variance drives safety stock. Below min-n the specified default governs: vendor-quoted × global correction factor, buffer at the ratio distribution's P90 (spec §7).

Global distribution
20d median
P10 13.0d · P90 39.0d · n=216 full receipts
Quoted → actual correction
×1.118
ratio P10 ×0.91 · P90 ×1.61 (the default's buffer) · fit on 163 quoted POs
Seasonal regimes
CNY ×1.21
Q4 ×1.05 · fitted from order-month splits
Observations
216
16 vendors · 2 partial (first-receipt, kept separate) · 1 excluded · run lt-2026-07-06-15e0b47c · 2026-07-06 01:18Z
Min-n discipline (spec §7): a vendor needs ≥8 full receipts before its learned distribution replaces the default; learned vendors are shrunk toward the global distribution with weight n/(n+8). Drift flag fires after 3 consecutive receipts outside the expanding P10–P90 band on the same side, and auto-shifts the served estimate while raised. Raw quantiles are shown beside served values so an unserved raw median (e.g. a below-min-n vendor with one slow receipt) is never hidden.
VendornServed P10 / P50 / P90SpreadRaw P10 / P50 / P90SourceShrink wQuoted medRegime Q4 / CNYDrift
Earth Animal4712.7d / 16.6d / 25.3d12.7d12.6d / 16.0d / 23.0dlearned0.85514.0d×1.28 / ×0.78drift episode ×1 (cleared)

SKU-level overrides (genuinely different from their vendor, spec §7)

Case SKUVendornServed P10 / P50 / P90Raw P50Shrink w (→ vendor)
ILLY_C_GC_8.8OZ_INTEN_ESP_CASEIlly1315.2d / 33.2d / 80.2d30.0d0.619
EA_NHC_VB_LRG_3CT_PORK_CASEEarth Animal1013.8d / 17.9d / 23.6d19.5d0.556
ILLY_C_KC_10CT_DECAF_CASEIlly915.2d / 30.3d / 69.1d23.0d0.529

Drift episodes (real receipts)

VendorSideFired atCleared atEpisode receipts (days)
Earth Animallow2026-03-022026-03-1312, 12, 11
Illyhigh2026-04-132026-06-0884, 86, 91, 92, 87
Wiley Wallaby
45
13.0d / 19.2d / 26.3d
13.3d
13.0d / 19.0d / 24.0d
learned
0.849
17.0d
×1.05 / ×0.97
stable
Illy3615.0d / 35.1d / 77.9d62.8d15.5d / 38.5d / 86.5dlearned0.81825.0d×1.73 / ×3.59drift episode ×1 (cleared)
TROPICLEAN2915.8d / 20.0d / 30.5d14.7d16.6d / 20.0d / 28.2dlearned0.78417.0d×1.05 / ×1.21stable
Rocketbook2111.6d / 16.4d / 29.6d18.0d11.0d / 15.0d / 26.0dlearned0.724—×1.05 / ×1.21stable
Finleys1111.8d / 17.1d / 31.5d19.6d11.0d / 15.0d / 26.0dlearned0.57914.5d×1.05 / ×1.21stable
Unknown718.2d / 22.4d / 32.2d14.1d12.0d / 17.0d / 29.4ddefault: quoted × correction—20.0d×1.05 / ×1.21n too small
Urine OFF516.4d / 20.1d / 29.0d12.7d23.8d / 57.0d / 150.0ddefault: quoted × correction—18.0d×1.05 / ×1.21n too small
Heartbeat Hot Sauce Co313.0d / 20.0d / 39.0d26.0d24.4d / 30.0d / 30.8ddefault: global——×1.05 / ×1.21n too small
Naturel Promise318.2d / 22.4d / 32.2d14.1d20.0d / 20.0d / 20.8ddefault: quoted × correction—20.0d×1.05 / ×1.21n too small
Etta Says!213.0d / 20.0d / 39.0d26.0d20.5d / 26.5d / 32.5ddefault: global——×1.05 / ×1.21n too small
Get Coffee’d221.8d / 26.8d / 38.7d16.9d21.6d / 28.0d / 34.4ddefault: quoted × correction—24.0d×1.05 / ×1.21n too small
Let's Bake Bread213.0d / 20.0d / 39.0d26.0d3.9d / 11.5d / 19.1ddefault: global——×1.05 / ×1.21n too small
Cosmo's Snack Shack123.6d / 29.1d / 41.9d18.3d36.0d / 36.0d / 36.0ddefault: quoted × correction—26.0d×1.05 / ×1.21n too small
Criss Angel13.6d / 4.5d / 6.4d2.8d7.0d / 7.0d / 7.0ddefault: quoted × correction—4.0d×1.05 / ×1.21n too small
SureFire16.4d / 7.8d / 11.3d4.9d111.0d / 111.0d / 111.0ddefault: quoted × correction—7.0d×1.05 / ×1.21n too small
ILLY_C_GC_8.8OZ_DECAF_ESP_CASEIlly814.6d / 28.5d / 71.9d18.5d0.500
ILLY_C_NC_10CT_INTEN_LUN_CASEIlly820.5d / 49.8d / 85.7d61.0d0.500