Calibration coverage (GMV-weighted)
39.8%
$5,518,055 of $13,865,439 trailing-90d GMV sits in FITTED cells · 303 of 2251 active ASINs (515 carry monthlySold)
Ground-truth ASINs (≈100% BB)
179
BB time-share ≥ 95% over 90d, coverage ≥ 50%, own units > 0
Multiplier cells
9 fitted / 57
per (category, bucket), min n=5; below-n cells use the fallback ladder (pooled bucket → global → prior) and cap at grade B
Reconciliation (contested ASINs)
111 divergent / 182
agreement band ×2 on interval midpoints; divergence downgrades the grade and writes a flag row
Snapshot cal-2026-07-03-7b54d50b ACTIVE · created 2026-07-03 04:02 UTC · payload window ends 2026-07-03 02:58 UTC · content hash 7b54d50bd7e5cf92… · our seller AZLEWEBSPAY9I
Debias multiplier cells (W1.2)
multiplier = true own units ÷ monthlySold bucket floor, fit on ground-truth ASINs per (Keepa root category, bucket floor). Non-fitted sources cap the confidence grade at B (spec §2.3).
| Category | Bucket floor | n (cell) | Source | n (source) | P10 | P50 | P90 | Grade cap |
|---|
| 16310101 | 50 | 32 | fitted | 32 | 1.054 | 1.790 | 2.180 | A |
|
Buy-box time-share → unit-share mapping (W1.3)
Observed unit-share (own units ÷ debiased total demand) per decile of BB time-share. Bins below n=5 carry an identity-centered wide prior and cap the grade at B (spec §1, QA B1).
| Time-share bin | n | Source | Unit-share P10 | Mean | P90 |
|---|
| 0.0–0.1 | 66 | fitted | 0.020 | 0.044 | 0.109 |
| 0.1–0.2 | 17 | fitted | 0.020 | 0.203 | 0.484 |
| 0.2–0.3 |
Tier assignments (pinned)
Trailing-90d revenue tiers with §8.1 seasonal promotion (same-period-last-year own revenue over the upcoming 90-day window).
A: 192 ASINs · 110 seasonally promoted
B: 218 ASINs · 126 seasonally promoted
C: 752 ASINs · 367 seasonally promoted
U: 777 ASINs
Reconciliation flags (W1.4)
Contested ASINs where top-down (monthlySold × multiplier) and bottom-up (own units ÷ unit-share) disagree beyond the ×2 band — grade downgraded, flagged for review (spec §1.1).
| ASIN | Top-down (units/30d) | Bottom-up (units/30d) | log-ratio | Grade |
|---|
| B000634IUO | 3,594–9,038 | 6–150 | 5.23 | B → C |
| B0017JAR6K | 1,372–4,926 | 9–50 | 4.80 | A → B |
| B01EUNSD5G | 958–2,032 | 9–50 |
| 2619533011 | 100 | 23 | fitted | 23 | 1.206 | 1.570 | 2.324 | A |
| 2619533011 | 50 | 21 | fitted | 21 | 1.580 | 1.880 | 2.660 | A |
| 2619533011 | 200 | 16 | fitted | 16 | 1.317 | 1.657 | 1.953 | A |
| 16310101 | 1,000 | 7 | fitted | 7 | 1.360 | 1.840 | 2.259 | A |
| 2619533011 | 300 | 7 | fitted | 7 | 1.457 | 1.670 | 1.778 | A |
| 2619533011 | 1,000 | 6 | fitted | 6 | 1.372 | 1.629 | 2.464 | A |
| 16310101 | 500 | 5 | fitted | 5 | 1.200 | 1.308 | 1.363 | A |
| 16310101 | 200 | 4 | pooled_bucket | 20 | 1.367 | 1.657 | 1.950 | B |
| 2619533011 | 400 | 4 | pooled_bucket | 7 | 1.351 | 1.567 | 1.621 | B |
| 2619533011 | 700 | 4 | pooled_bucket | 5 | 1.111 | 1.541 | 1.605 | B |
| 16310101 | 300 | 3 | pooled_bucket | 10 | 1.268 | 1.548 | 1.732 | B |
| 16310101 | 400 | 3 | pooled_bucket | 7 | 1.351 | 1.567 | 1.621 | B |
| 2619533011 | 500 | 3 | pooled_bucket | 8 | 1.235 | 1.360 | 1.673 | B |
| 2619533011 | 800 | 3 | global | 179 | 1.198 | 1.616 | 2.260 | B |
| 1064954 | 50 | 2 | pooled_bucket | 55 | 1.132 | 1.820 | 2.556 | B |
| 1064954 | 100 | 2 | pooled_bucket | 48 | 1.164 | 1.575 | 2.204 | B |
| 2619533011 | 900 | 2 | global | 179 | 1.198 | 1.616 | 2.260 | B |
| 2619533011 | 2,000 | 2 | global | 179 | 1.198 | 1.616 | 2.260 | B |
| 2619533011 | 3,000 | 2 | global | 179 | 1.198 | 1.616 | 2.260 | B |
| 16310101 | 600 | 1 | global | 179 | 1.198 | 1.616 | 2.260 | B |
| 16310101 | 700 | 1 | pooled_bucket | 5 | 1.111 | 1.541 | 1.605 | B |
| 16310101 | 900 | 1 | global | 179 | 1.198 | 1.616 | 2.260 | B |
| 16310101 | 5,000 | 1 | global | 179 | 1.198 | 1.616 | 2.260 | B |
| 2619533011 | 600 | 1 | global | 179 | 1.198 | 1.616 | 2.260 | B |
| 172282 | 100 | 0 | pooled_bucket | 48 | 1.164 | 1.575 | 2.204 | B |
| 228013 | 50 | 0 | pooled_bucket | 55 | 1.132 | 1.820 | 2.556 | B |
| 228013 | 100 | 0 | pooled_bucket | 48 | 1.164 | 1.575 | 2.204 | B |
| 1064954 | 200 | 0 | pooled_bucket | 20 | 1.367 | 1.657 | 1.950 | B |
Showing 30 of 57 cells (by descending n). Full table: calibration_multiplier_cell.
| 0.3–0.4 | 8 | fitted | 0.020 | 0.385 | 0.881 |
| 0.4–0.5 | 12 | fitted | 0.020 | 0.211 | 0.802 |
| 0.5–0.6 | 11 | fitted | 0.032 | 0.628 | 1.000 |
| 0.6–0.7 | 11 | fitted | 0.064 | 0.596 | 0.871 |
| 0.7–0.8 | 9 | fitted | 0.805 | 0.904 | 1.000 |
| 0.8–0.9 | 21 | fitted | 0.640 | 0.810 | 1.000 |
| 0.9–1.0 | 193 | fitted | 0.663 | 0.895 | 1.000 |
| B00379KT4I | 719–1,580 | 9–50 | 3.91 | B → C |
| B00U2V0GMO | 719–1,580 | 9–50 | 3.91 | B → C |
| B01EUNSB6W | 719–1,580 | 9–50 | 3.91 | B → C |
| B0054WTPBY | 8,386–18,078 | 120–650 | 3.79 | B → C |
| B01N2W1JMH | 1,372–4,926 | 37–200 | 3.41 | A → B |
| B07VHPHRW8 | 437–709 | 9–50 | 3.26 | A → B |
| B0DP3HG1KZ | 380–691 | 9–50 | 3.17 | B → C |
| B06XF42529 | 540–809 | 5–157 | 3.16 | B → C |
| B01DS73GTI | 1,372–4,926 | 31–423 | 3.12 | A → B |
| B000A3W0MS | 778–1,282 | 7–300 | 3.10 | B → C |
| B0F4L61VGN | 264–584 | 4–100 | 2.96 | A → B |
| B07MTT3GR4 | 264–584 | 9–50 | 2.91 | A → B |
| B07NXJN253 | 264–584 | 9–50 | 2.91 | A → B |
| B0DP3JFY1Q | 540–809 | 18–100 | 2.73 | B → C |
| B0FMSD8RV8 | 57–253 | 1–50 | 2.72 | B → C |
| B0FMS98CHJ | 116–439 | 2–100 | 2.66 | B → C |
| B077PG7Q5C | 121–462 | 4–71 | 2.65 | A → B |
| B00379KT66 | 437–709 | 18–100 | 2.56 | A → B |
| B0DP3H1MB7 | 116–439 | 4–100 | 2.41 | B → C |
| B00UEW79LW | 121–462 | 9–50 | 2.40 | A → B |
| B01NBMQXAJ | 121–462 | 9–50 | 2.40 | A → B |
| B0CF77DY38 | 121–462 | 9–50 | 2.40 | A → B |
Showing 25 of 111 divergent ASINs. Full table: reconciliation_flag.